Full Version: Kerry Gets 5 To 6 Percent
Early ZOGBY POLL results about the post convention bounce, even BEFORE the great Kerry speech shows Kerry picked up 5 to 6 points and is holding onto a bigger lead against Bush. The expectation is that the bounce will go even higher as the impact from the convention and speech is digested over the next week or so.
"digested" Yes key word here.
What is the end result of the digestive process?
What is the end result of the digestive process?
Gaining a bounce from the convention in no way qualifies as "holding on to an even bigger lead". All poll indications have shown that Bush and Kerry have been roughly tied for quite a while now.
It seems like everybody's brother and sister is writing about the speech last night, but two stand out for me.
First is the Dick Morris piece in the NY Post. Tje Bagel Candidacy, looks at it from a politically tactical point.
But here is the real money quote.
Dick Morris is right to ask this. Just what has he actually accomplished. And he is not talking about words and feelings either.
Mr. Morris concludes with this telling thought
Or how about this from Dan Casey, Convention Rapid Response Team.
The point of both writers is that Kerry does not mention his professional political career. Why Not? The answer is obvious if you look deeply. He doesn't have one that stands out.
And too, the fact that he is a US Senator, as I have stated numerous time here, puts him and his running mate at a select disadvantage to getting to the White House. The Senate is loaded with 100 monumental egos wishing to be President, constantly compromising, ruling by committee, and acting every which way but executive in manner. The President is an executive post, not legislative.
And that is why governers are Always placed at a distinct advantage. To get directly from Senator to President requires a colossal presence, and this candidate doesn't have it.
First is the Dick Morris piece in the NY Post. Tje Bagel Candidacy, looks at it from a politically tactical point.
QUOTE
By insisting that we are in Iraq because we "want to be," rather than because we "have to be," he is telling them that they are risking their lives for an optional, elective adventure. The fact is, that the reason we have not been attacked in the United States is that the terrorists are fleeing from cave to cave in Afghanistan and from building to building in Iraq — pursued by our heroic young men and women.
But here is the real money quote.
QUOTE
What did this man do as an adult? What happened during his service as Michael Dukakis' lieutenant-governor in Massachusetts and in his 20 years in the United States Senate?
What bills did he introduce? What initiatives did he sponsor? Which investigations did he lead? What amendments bear his name? What great debates did he participate in?
What did he do for his constituents in Massachusetts? What businesses did he persuade to come to the Bay State? Which elderly did he help get their Social Security benefits? What injustices did he correct?
Kerry's biography ends at 24.
What bills did he introduce? What initiatives did he sponsor? Which investigations did he lead? What amendments bear his name? What great debates did he participate in?
What did he do for his constituents in Massachusetts? What businesses did he persuade to come to the Bay State? Which elderly did he help get their Social Security benefits? What injustices did he correct?
Kerry's biography ends at 24.
Dick Morris is right to ask this. Just what has he actually accomplished. And he is not talking about words and feelings either.
Mr. Morris concludes with this telling thought
QUOTE
Oddly, his absence of biography confirms the impression I formed of him during my White House years: He's a back-bencher. I never can recall a single time that his name came up in any discussion of White House strategy on anything. He was the man who wasn't there. We were always figuring out how to deal with Ted Kennedy or Pat Moynihan or Tom Daschle or Phil Gramm, or Al D'Amato or Bob Dole or Jesse Helms or Orin Hatch or Joe Biden. But nobody every asked about John Kerry.
Or how about this from Dan Casey, Convention Rapid Response Team.
QUOTE
Kerry will get his bounce.
The Speech accomplished the basics and more. His war service, heroism, the flag, and call for a larger military positions him (to the average undecided voter tuning in) as a strong patriot and a strong leader. Commander-in-chief material. That's gotta be worth a few points.
It will take a sustained attack on Kerry's liberal 20-year defense voting record to bring his public image more in line with reality.
By my calculations, his 5,221-word speech (thank you, Mr. Drudge) contained exactly 71 words about his 20-year Senate career. That is the dog that didn't bark tonight.
The Speech accomplished the basics and more. His war service, heroism, the flag, and call for a larger military positions him (to the average undecided voter tuning in) as a strong patriot and a strong leader. Commander-in-chief material. That's gotta be worth a few points.
It will take a sustained attack on Kerry's liberal 20-year defense voting record to bring his public image more in line with reality.
By my calculations, his 5,221-word speech (thank you, Mr. Drudge) contained exactly 71 words about his 20-year Senate career. That is the dog that didn't bark tonight.
The point of both writers is that Kerry does not mention his professional political career. Why Not? The answer is obvious if you look deeply. He doesn't have one that stands out.
And too, the fact that he is a US Senator, as I have stated numerous time here, puts him and his running mate at a select disadvantage to getting to the White House. The Senate is loaded with 100 monumental egos wishing to be President, constantly compromising, ruling by committee, and acting every which way but executive in manner. The President is an executive post, not legislative.
And that is why governers are Always placed at a distinct advantage. To get directly from Senator to President requires a colossal presence, and this candidate doesn't have it.
Yes the initial bounce is about 5 percent
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews848.html
and is quite possible Kerry will gain some more points over the next week, between 1 and 5.
And yes, of course, Bush will bounce back at his convention.
So it comes down to the debates and events.
I put my money of Kerry Edwards in the debates, they will perform either evenly or they will win.
As far as events, God knows.
The main thing Kerry did and he did extremely well was give people good reasons to vote FOR KERRY, and not only ANTI BUSH, and in that sense, the dynamic of the race is forever changed.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews848.html
and is quite possible Kerry will gain some more points over the next week, between 1 and 5.
And yes, of course, Bush will bounce back at his convention.
So it comes down to the debates and events.
I put my money of Kerry Edwards in the debates, they will perform either evenly or they will win.
As far as events, God knows.
The main thing Kerry did and he did extremely well was give people good reasons to vote FOR KERRY, and not only ANTI BUSH, and in that sense, the dynamic of the race is forever changed.
I think Kerry did a great job. Anyone who does not think so is being disingenuous.
The problem is that the speach does not jive with the last 19 yrs he has voted as a Senator.
Take the speach without context, and it was great.
Also. all this I love America from the party that looks down, and demonizes America. If he would have had the balls to stand up to the radical left in his party (which funny enough includes Al Gore), it would go a long way to winning me over. I honestly believe that Kerry is not part of this hate America/Bush is Hitler group, but if he cannot lead his own party, what qualifies him to lead the country.
So as a speach (A), as a future president (C-).
The problem is that the speach does not jive with the last 19 yrs he has voted as a Senator.
Take the speach without context, and it was great.
Also. all this I love America from the party that looks down, and demonizes America. If he would have had the balls to stand up to the radical left in his party (which funny enough includes Al Gore), it would go a long way to winning me over. I honestly believe that Kerry is not part of this hate America/Bush is Hitler group, but if he cannot lead his own party, what qualifies him to lead the country.
So as a speach (A), as a future president (C-).
Zogby 
When will he learn?
When will he learn?
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