Here is a very interesting article which runs by the history in 2000 and what we can learn about it in 2004:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...-2004Jul27.html

Here is something I bet you didn't know:

INCUMBENT presidents such as Bush historically don't get much of a bounce.



In other words, DO NOT EXPECT a large Bush bounce after his convention, based on history. However, if Bush does get a large bounce, that would be bad news for Kerry.