I doubt you right wing wackos are on the President John F Kerry mailing list, so I thought you might enjoy this very insightful analysis from the Kerry campaign about the DISMAL PROSPECTS of the bush reelection campaign in the context of the long history of presidential campaigns. It pretty much mirrors what Zogby has been saying for several months; Kerry wins, short of a miracle.


President Kerry GET USED TO IT!


MEMO

To: The Kerry-Edwards Campaign
From: Mark Mellman, Senior Strategist
Re: Where Bush-Cheney Needs To Be
Date: August 24, 2004

As a senior strategist for John Kerry, I have prepared this update for the campaign's most active supporters as we enter the crucial weeks ahead. It's clear that your support has put this campaign in such a strong position as we enter a critical period. Your hard work, activism, and contributions have allowed our campaign to match the Bush campaign on the airwaves and on the ground. I can report that all you've done is now paying off when it counts the most.

By any standard, President Bush heads into his convention in a very weak position. His current position stems from the fact that voters judge the incumbent on his performance and on the state of the nation. By this measure, the president is in grave difficulty. To be counted a success, the Republican convention must fundamentally alter public attitudes on President Bush's stewardship of the country.

There are some basic benchmarks by which an incumbent's success can be measured as the campaign heads into the fall:

* The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed, every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the mid-50's or higher at this point. In recent polling, Bush's average approval rating has been 48%. President Bush must emerge from his convention having dramatically altered public perception of his performance in office.

* In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, on average, said the country was on the right track. Now, just 37% think things are moving in the right direction. Thus, President Bush must convince the electorate that the nation is in much better shape than voters now believe to be the case.
Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.

* Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a 16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points. Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his successful predecessors.

* Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.

* On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points between their convention and Election Day.

President Bush has the opportunity to achieve an average, or even greater, bounce from his convention. Typically, elected incumbents go into their conventions with a 9-point lead, while incumbents who have gone on to win enter their conventions with a 21-point lead. Most current polls show the race quite close. This gives the president substantial room to bounce. By contrast, Senator Kerry entered his convention in a far stronger position than the average challenger. The average challenger goes into his convention 16 points behind, while Senator Kerry entered his convention with a 1-2 point lead. This gave Senator Kerry much less room to bounce.

However, as the data above makes clear, average is not enough for President Bush. Incumbents who went on to win reelection had an average lead of 27 points after their convention. Indeed, the average elected incumbent -- winners and losers -- had a lead of 16 points after their conventions. An average bounce would still leave Bush well below the historical mark set by other incumbents, particularly those who went on to victory.

Perhaps most important, the average elected incumbent experienced a 4-point drop in his share of the two-party vote from the post-convention polling to Election Day. Thus, to beat the odds, President Bush will need to be garnering 55% of the two-party vote after his convention. Anything less than that and the president will remain in grave political danger.

Very funny! So what this means is that Kerry hopes to win the election based on what he can twist peoples' minds to assume Bush did wrong without having to rely on any plans of his own to make things better.

Is it really all it takes, fear, to get you Libs to cast a blind vote for 'anyone but Bush'? Or is it that the idea of being on a winning side is all it takes?

One word....RETARDED! That's what Kerry thinks his supporters are! If he didn't, he'd talk to you intelligently! He'd explain issues to you...like America wasn't built in 4 years nor can it be destroyed in 4 years.....after all it's taken over 30 years for Kerry's/Kennedy's etc anti-Americanism to take as much root as it has yet still not all of us are convinced....he'd explain how his trillion dollar health program is going to work for all eternity...he'd explain what jobs he's going to bring back from overseas for Americans to do and how being an isolationist is a good idea economically.....oh, so many other things, but in short he'd explain why he can't take a stand on anything after it proves not glorious to him personally and show once and for all his reason for wanting to be president is not so he can say he got to be president but to say he got to lead a great nation to become greater...oops...he can't say that now can he...being as how he is anti-america (has never denounced that part of his life) and doesn't even understand the most basic of our country's foundation....that being that we are not the UN, we are the US!

Kerry has ego problems! Vote Bush in 2004! Watch Kerry p*ss and moan for the next 4 years how he was cheated out of the presidency.....yes, 'the presidency' which he acts like is the same thrill as being able to wear the king's crown at his birthday party.

I think you are confused.
This wasn't an issue letter.
For info on Kerry's issues, see http://www.johnkerry.com

It was a summary an evaluation of the current polling position of bush relative to the history of presidential elections, so Kerry's supporters can use that information to help seal the deal, and move on to victory over bush.