THE SHIFTING CAMPAIGN: In all this, you can almost feel the election swinging Bush's way a little. The swift boat smear was important in jolting the conversation, in changing the dynamic that was pointing to a Bush defeat. But Kerry's weaknesses are also at play here. I don't believe his convention was wasted. He had to emphasize national security. But it's domestic policies that will win him the election, if he does win, and he hasn't yet made them the focus of the battle. Maybe he will. But the bottom line is that Kerry is a deeply weak candidate, and it took McCain and Giuliani, almost by simple contrast, to remind us why. Bush still has a case to make - defending his record deficits, his errors in the war in Iraq, his vast new spending, his refusal to tackle entitlements, his protectionism, his anti-gay amendment, and so on. But he's ahead on the leadership front, even before he gives his acceptance speech. Not bad.