http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfmfm...nder%20Reported

link broken.

http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?f...nder%20Reported

fixed.

Aren't you guys getting a little bored of polls?

Only the ones you guys post as they are usually wrong, biased and so far off the mark.

So this is all news to you guys?

Thank's incognito. That is the most civil response I've had from you for a good while..

What you are assuming that is so wrong is that because someone is a registered Democrat they will vote for Kerry. Of the 38 % Democrats you mention only approximately 20 % of them are Liberal, The other 18 % are very capable of voting for George over Lurch because of National Security and Tax issues alone, not to mention the over all economic outlook that is great considering 9/11 happened only 3 short years ago.

Politiphile, don't worry, they will have a perfect understanding on 9/3.

and the reverse is true as well.. there are MANY republicans and former Bush voters who will not be voting for him this time.

besides, your assumption is faulty.

Rasmussen did a poll about support within each candidate's party..

something like 87% of Republicans support Dubya, while 83% of Dems support Kerry, so party lines are pretty tight right now.

if the ratio of the 2000 election's turnout holds true, then 39% of the people who vote will be Democrats, and 34% will be Republican.

any net gain of Democrats supporting Bush would probably not be large enough to overcome the difference of Democratic voters to Repug voters, and certainly would not be enough to account for a 13% lead in the polls, as Gallup is claiming this week.


besides, the Gallup poll has already been exposed to have grossly overweighted its sample with Republicans..

this was the party % of the Gallup sample..

Total Sample: 767
GOP: 305 (40%)
Dem: 253 (33%)
Ind: 208 (28%)


this was the % of voter turnout in the 96 and 2000 elections:

39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996;
39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000.


that means that compared to the turnout from last election, Gallup overweighted Republicans by 5%, while underweighting Democrats by 6%..

in other words an 11% swing.. there goes your 13% point lead right there.

If you would stop giving me the fingers, you might get a lot more nicer posts. That photo is a lie by the way.

BTW Gideon, talk to me in Geordie in one or two sentences as I have been told you are not what you seem to be.
cheers.

I'm from Teeside, we don't spek Gordie in Teeside.

We are affectionately called Smoggies by our fellow northerners.

I will be there in Newcastle next month. Do you want a drink?

what is the main shopping centre up that way?

what is the main shopping in Newcastle Toon called?

How can I know you are from that part of the world?

Gosh, this is sickening! Would you mind taking your 'pick up lines' to PMs?

The main shopping centre in Gateshead is called the Metro Centre. Up the road from me near Durham is Sedgefield, whichi s Tony Blair's constituancy. My local football club is Middlesbrough FC, which is managed by Steve Maclaren.

I you are ever in Teeside, you are welcome to have a drink with me. But I am off to York University in 3 weeks..