Is there more the EU nations should be worrying about than their obession with US foriegn and economic policy?
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Full Version: China Next Economic Superpower?
QUOTE (ustrader @ Oct 23 2004, 06:33 PM)
When China's economy sneezes ...
By Macabe Keliher
By Macabe Keliher
Better ask Macabe Keliher, how much you would trust China privately?
Do you have your own savings in USD in the United States or in Yuan in China?
Do you like to have decided by the Government, what you are allowed to speak or to read?
Hmm....Do not ask too much or you will be in a Chinese prison for a while....
They will not miss you among the 1400 million people there... quite backwarded outside of the cities - Business is ok there, as long as it is a business FOR YOU...
When making business with China, you have to be aware, that unexpected problems might force you out there even overnight....you must be always prepared, that business there might be available or not available, depending on the mood of the Communist party.
Any kind of problems, whatever is going on in China, should not surprise you!
It should be noted that China is by far the largest country on Earth with a ratio of population. Whatever the current growth rate and potential stalls in it's economy it will become the biggest economy the world has ever seen. This will IMHO be followed by India
Europe is desperately trying to re-invent itself but remains to be seen if it can establish the Euro as the new preferred trading currency. So far so good but what about the current king, the dollar?
The US dollar is in a terrible state and from what I can tell is on the edge of collapse as a world trading tool. It has been on the decline now for 3 years and although the reports are a recovering economy I can't see it in the figures.Debt is at an all time high. Interest rates at an all time low, more dollars were printed during 2002-2003 than over the total of the past 100 years. effectively devaluing it further. As a fiat currency it is now one of the longest running in history. ALL the past fiat currencies have ended in disaster.
The commodities sector is in a bull rally and will continue as the rest of the world goes through changes to the 1st world standard that europe and the states have already achieved. Any setback will be only that. A setback no more.
The countries of China and India have a massive potential and it is unlikely, given the amout of investment of production and services of the West in these places that things will be allowed to become too serious.
As the 20th century belonged to America and the 18/19th to Europe so IMHO The 21st century belongs to Asia and unless other certain Govs realise it soon and adapt to "bend in the wind" they will "snap like a dry twig"
Forget about pensions stocks and paper money, this century will be about commodities that are real to see, use and touch. Gold is a prime example it's real and is still of sound value today, in fact it's undervalued due to manipulation by certain parties. Asia will end that and the drain on world resources/commodities will be huge if not critical. This will be the most exciting and dangerous century yet.
Europe is desperately trying to re-invent itself but remains to be seen if it can establish the Euro as the new preferred trading currency. So far so good but what about the current king, the dollar?
The US dollar is in a terrible state and from what I can tell is on the edge of collapse as a world trading tool. It has been on the decline now for 3 years and although the reports are a recovering economy I can't see it in the figures.Debt is at an all time high. Interest rates at an all time low, more dollars were printed during 2002-2003 than over the total of the past 100 years. effectively devaluing it further. As a fiat currency it is now one of the longest running in history. ALL the past fiat currencies have ended in disaster.
The commodities sector is in a bull rally and will continue as the rest of the world goes through changes to the 1st world standard that europe and the states have already achieved. Any setback will be only that. A setback no more.
The countries of China and India have a massive potential and it is unlikely, given the amout of investment of production and services of the West in these places that things will be allowed to become too serious.
As the 20th century belonged to America and the 18/19th to Europe so IMHO The 21st century belongs to Asia and unless other certain Govs realise it soon and adapt to "bend in the wind" they will "snap like a dry twig"
Forget about pensions stocks and paper money, this century will be about commodities that are real to see, use and touch. Gold is a prime example it's real and is still of sound value today, in fact it's undervalued due to manipulation by certain parties. Asia will end that and the drain on world resources/commodities will be huge if not critical. This will be the most exciting and dangerous century yet.
As I posed the inquiry as an impact issue particularly on world economies, the Reponses are interesting perspectives.
China and oil
China, Cuba Agree to Business Deals
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/...10257061.htm?1c
Asian Stock Focus: China's Hot Auto Sales Cool
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041124/15/3orlx.html
Mighty greenback now China's ‘money to burn'
Beijing — In Chinese street slang, they are known as the “yellow bulls” — the underground traders who lurk outside the banks in aggressive pursuit of currency deals. But despite their business zeal, there is one commodity they are unwilling to buy on the street these days: U.S. dollars.
“Everyone is converting their dollars to Chinese yuan,” one black-market trader confided as he stood outside a bank in Beijing Tuesday
The government might say that it won't change the official exchange rate today, but tomorrow it could announce a change.
At the Shanghai branch of the Bank of China, meanwhile, the conversion of dollar accounts to yuan accounts increased by 17 per cent in September and 34 per cent last month.
U.S. government officials continue to pressure China to de-link its currency (the yuan) from the U.S. dollar. who says a weak dollar will give “beleaguered American manufacturers a price advantage over companies elsewhere.” With China a growing trading partner of the U.S., it is thought that letting the yuan float upward will enable American manufacturers to “compete” more effectively
http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment...00411230828.asp
China's central bank tells US not to blame others for economic woes
Li Ruogu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, also said in an interview with the Financial Times that foreign pressure would not force China to move faster on freeing up its exchange rate system.
Li warned that external pressure on China to abandon its decade-old peg to the US dollar would only be counter-productive.
"Under heavy speculation we cannot move (towards greater flexibility) and under heavy external pressure we cannot," he said according to the report.
"So the best environment for us to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate is when people don't talk about it."
[b] It appears this deliberate policy of weakening the dollar to correct trade inbalance and stimulate American company competitiveness and decrease the deficit thru increased trade is putting pressure on Europe and China. Will it work will the world economy collapse and a world wide depression willbegin?
That is all!
China, Cuba Agree to Business Deals
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/...10257061.htm?1c
Asian Stock Focus: China's Hot Auto Sales Cool
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/041124/15/3orlx.html
Mighty greenback now China's ‘money to burn'
Beijing — In Chinese street slang, they are known as the “yellow bulls” — the underground traders who lurk outside the banks in aggressive pursuit of currency deals. But despite their business zeal, there is one commodity they are unwilling to buy on the street these days: U.S. dollars.
“Everyone is converting their dollars to Chinese yuan,” one black-market trader confided as he stood outside a bank in Beijing Tuesday
The government might say that it won't change the official exchange rate today, but tomorrow it could announce a change.
At the Shanghai branch of the Bank of China, meanwhile, the conversion of dollar accounts to yuan accounts increased by 17 per cent in September and 34 per cent last month.
U.S. government officials continue to pressure China to de-link its currency (the yuan) from the U.S. dollar. who says a weak dollar will give “beleaguered American manufacturers a price advantage over companies elsewhere.” With China a growing trading partner of the U.S., it is thought that letting the yuan float upward will enable American manufacturers to “compete” more effectively
http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment...00411230828.asp
China's central bank tells US not to blame others for economic woes
Li Ruogu, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, also said in an interview with the Financial Times that foreign pressure would not force China to move faster on freeing up its exchange rate system.
Li warned that external pressure on China to abandon its decade-old peg to the US dollar would only be counter-productive.
"Under heavy speculation we cannot move (towards greater flexibility) and under heavy external pressure we cannot," he said according to the report.
"So the best environment for us to gradually move towards a more flexible exchange rate is when people don't talk about it."
[b] It appears this deliberate policy of weakening the dollar to correct trade inbalance and stimulate American company competitiveness and decrease the deficit thru increased trade is putting pressure on Europe and China. Will it work will the world economy collapse and a world wide depression willbegin?
That is all!
QUOTE (ustrader @ Nov 24 2004, 04:07 AM)
............ there is one commodity they are unwilling to buy on the street these days: U.S. dollars.
“Everyone is converting their dollars to Chinese yuan,” one black-market trader confided as he stood outside a bank in Beijing Tuesday
“Everyone is converting their dollars to Chinese yuan,” one black-market trader confided as he stood outside a bank in Beijing Tuesday
I do not recommend you to change your savings from US dollar to Chinese Yuan....
Still I trust America more than China....
What did the Chinese government say recently:
A free economy, but only under the strict control of the Communist party.....
Thank you, we do not need that...
I prefer a free economy without communists.....
I think, in this case, yes, America is the better choice.
China has some problems, one of which is their lack of transparency. I see China presently at the same place it was around 1900, moving forward rapidly and with great promise, however we what happened in China when their market collapsed around 1900.
You might change your money from Yuan into US Dollars and then again back into Yuan....
You might change your money from US Dollars in Yuan, but then if there is any political problem, I am not sure, if ever you can change it back into US Dollars....
Chinese economy is not really a free economy and Yuan is not a free convertible currency....A risky business....
If you are a big foreign company making business, you might be able to make a profit out of China, disregarding the risk, as you have other businesses with other countries as well.
However be aware, that at any time you might be unable to continue business in China due to unclear laws, strange restrictions, corruption - the communist party controls everything .... Same is true for Hongkong, which is losing importance as a gateway to China.
China, with 1400 million people and a communist administration, widely underdeveloped in the inner parts of the country is not an easygoing partner.
Plenty of problems there.....
You might change your money from US Dollars in Yuan, but then if there is any political problem, I am not sure, if ever you can change it back into US Dollars....
Chinese economy is not really a free economy and Yuan is not a free convertible currency....A risky business....
If you are a big foreign company making business, you might be able to make a profit out of China, disregarding the risk, as you have other businesses with other countries as well.
However be aware, that at any time you might be unable to continue business in China due to unclear laws, strange restrictions, corruption - the communist party controls everything .... Same is true for Hongkong, which is losing importance as a gateway to China.
China, with 1400 million people and a communist administration, widely underdeveloped in the inner parts of the country is not an easygoing partner.
Plenty of problems there.....
The 10 countries of ASEAN planned to adopt agreements with China to create the world's biggest free trade area by 2010 _ a US$2.4 trillion (�1.8 trillion) market of nearly 2 billion people.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/i_latestdetail.asp?id=24552
South-east Asian foreign ministers urged Australia and New Zealand today to join a non-aggression pact with the 10-country ASEAN grouping as South Korea signed on to the agreement.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Aust-N...l?oneclick=true
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/i_latestdetail.asp?id=24552
South-east Asian foreign ministers urged Australia and New Zealand today to join a non-aggression pact with the 10-country ASEAN grouping as South Korea signed on to the agreement.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Aust-N...l?oneclick=true
FEATURE-"Green opium" lures Chinese
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml...97§ion=news
US sets anti-dumping duties on Chinese, Vietnam shrimp
http://www.turkishpress.com/business/news....46.gnbuqbmf.xml
Chinese premier meets New Zealand, Australia counterparts
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/...ent_2279092.htm
Party: Public expects transparent govt
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/...ent_2277296.htm
That is all!
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml...97§ion=news
US sets anti-dumping duties on Chinese, Vietnam shrimp
http://www.turkishpress.com/business/news....46.gnbuqbmf.xml
Chinese premier meets New Zealand, Australia counterparts
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/...ent_2279092.htm
Party: Public expects transparent govt
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-11/...ent_2277296.htm
That is all!
Failed China Fuel Supplier Waited Too Long for Help
It was already too late when Chen Jiulin and other executives of China Aviation Oil of Singapore sent word on Sunday, Oct. 10, to their parent company in Beijing that they needed help.
By then, the Singapore company had lost $180 million by betting that oil prices would go down, and creditors were lining up demanding repayment.
But, it turns out, even that cash infusion fell short. By Nov. 25, the Singapore company, which had a virtual monopoly on jet fuel imports into China, had lost $550 million.
Ten days later, the parent company, China Aviation Oil Holdings, sold a 15 percent stake in its subsidiary to institutional investors for $108 million, saying publicly that the money was for a strategic investment. In fact, Mr. Chen said in court papers filed this week, the money was quickly sent to the Singapore affiliate to help cover its losses.
Last Monday, it filed for bankruptcy protection. On Wednesday, its chief executive, Mr. Chen, left Singapore and flew home to China, leaving in his wake angry shareholders, the start of numerous investigations and a scramble by China's airlines to secure alternative supplies of jet fuel.
White House Defends China on Currency
The Bush administration once again declared that China is not manipulating its exchange rate, dismissing loud complaints from some manufacturers and members of Congress that the country's undervalued currency is badly worsening the United States' trade deficit.
In a report released late Friday afternoon, more than a month after a Congressional deadline, the Treasury Department said China was "laying the groundwork for a shift to a market-based flexible exchange rate."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/04/business...s/04dollar.html
Germans hoping for €1bn deals with China
An aide to Mr Schröder said yesterday final work was under way on the sale to Air China of 23 Airbus aircraft, a deal that would be worth up to €1bn ($1.33bn, £690m). Siemens, the engineering group, had already secured a €360m deal on the sale of 180 locomotives. Other large contracts are being finalised.
"Let us be clear," a senior adviser to the chancellor said. "There are human rights deficiencies in China, from freedom of opinion to minority rights and the death sentence BUT…
By contrast, Mr Schröder's three-day visit to Japan, which follows his sojourn in China, is not expected to yield any commercial contracts, according to the official.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0922eee0-4599-11d...000e2511c8.html
That is all!
It was already too late when Chen Jiulin and other executives of China Aviation Oil of Singapore sent word on Sunday, Oct. 10, to their parent company in Beijing that they needed help.
By then, the Singapore company had lost $180 million by betting that oil prices would go down, and creditors were lining up demanding repayment.
But, it turns out, even that cash infusion fell short. By Nov. 25, the Singapore company, which had a virtual monopoly on jet fuel imports into China, had lost $550 million.
Ten days later, the parent company, China Aviation Oil Holdings, sold a 15 percent stake in its subsidiary to institutional investors for $108 million, saying publicly that the money was for a strategic investment. In fact, Mr. Chen said in court papers filed this week, the money was quickly sent to the Singapore affiliate to help cover its losses.
Last Monday, it filed for bankruptcy protection. On Wednesday, its chief executive, Mr. Chen, left Singapore and flew home to China, leaving in his wake angry shareholders, the start of numerous investigations and a scramble by China's airlines to secure alternative supplies of jet fuel.
White House Defends China on Currency
The Bush administration once again declared that China is not manipulating its exchange rate, dismissing loud complaints from some manufacturers and members of Congress that the country's undervalued currency is badly worsening the United States' trade deficit.
In a report released late Friday afternoon, more than a month after a Congressional deadline, the Treasury Department said China was "laying the groundwork for a shift to a market-based flexible exchange rate."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/04/business...s/04dollar.html
Germans hoping for €1bn deals with China
An aide to Mr Schröder said yesterday final work was under way on the sale to Air China of 23 Airbus aircraft, a deal that would be worth up to €1bn ($1.33bn, £690m). Siemens, the engineering group, had already secured a €360m deal on the sale of 180 locomotives. Other large contracts are being finalised.
"Let us be clear," a senior adviser to the chancellor said. "There are human rights deficiencies in China, from freedom of opinion to minority rights and the death sentence BUT…
By contrast, Mr Schröder's three-day visit to Japan, which follows his sojourn in China, is not expected to yield any commercial contracts, according to the official.
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0922eee0-4599-11d...000e2511c8.html
That is all!
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