Okay so as both a Neoconservative and a buff on Middle East history and politics, this is where I think the United States and her allies stand now, and where we should move next. It is useful to note that I feel this "War on Terror" Is going to be a long, multi-generational conflict, such as the Cold War.
The Bush Doctrine outlined after 9/11 sent a clear message that has in every way been enforced: The United States is done with this bullshit. These religious fundies have been attacking us since 1979, and it's all gonna change.
Since then we have been taking steps to Democratize the Middle East.
First Afghanistan. Things went relatively easily here, there is still a Taliban insurgency, but it's an even bigger joke than the Iraqi one. I would say it is clearly on the side of Liberty.
Next we have Iraq. The war is beginning to wind down here, and the Insurgency has long been on the run. Within a few years I think Iraq will be another Democratic state.
Lebanon- Syrians getting out, democracy being brought to the region. We don't have much to worry about.
Egypt- Having multi-party elections this year, but I think we should still keep our eye on the Egyptian situation. For now we can afford to be looking elsewhere.
Lybia- The dictator there has unveiled he posseses a secret WMD program and has invited the UN to aid him in dismantling it. He has shown he can be dealt with via words. Not a top priority target.
Syria: A dangerous state. Controlled by the Fascist Baath party, extremely hostile to US forces in the region. A high priority target for Democratization. The Damascus government is a clear cut enemy.
Turkey: Fairly irrelevant to this war.
Jordan: Nothing we need to worry about for now, they havent caused any immediate trouble since the Arab-Israeli wars.
Saudi Arabia- An enigma. Bush has been putting pressure on the House of Saud for three years, and has succeeded so far in getting local elections. It's more progress than anybody else have ever been able to make in world history, but it's not enough progress. Saudi Arabia must be dealt with carefully.
Yemen-Irrelevant for now
Oman-Irrelevant for now.
Bahrain-A strong ally.
Qatar-A strong ally.
Kuwait- A strong ally.
The United Arab Emirates: Clearly an enemy, but not a powerful or relevant enough one for us to worry about right now.
Iran: Our single highest priority target. The Islamic Revolution in Iran has led the rise of Mideast Islamic Fundamentalism, and the rise of terrorist powers. Iran has expressed multiple times a desire to cover the Mideast region in a single Islamic Fundamentalist theocracy, led out of Tehran. Now we know from Ukrainian president Victor Yushenko that in the 1990s Iran purchased twelve Kh22 cruise missiles from the Ukraine. These missiles have a 3,000 mile range, fly too low to be detected by radar, and carry up to a 200 kiloton nuclear warhead. We know from the Iranians themselves that they have been purchasing tanks and helicopters from Russia, as well as Missile-based artillery from China. The Iranians are the single most viciously anti-US state in the Middle East, and they are clearly preparing for war.
I believe that, preferably in about two years, the United States should strike at Iran. The state is ripe for change, with the vast majority of the populace being not only anti-Mullah but fairly pro Iran. In Iran we should not be forced into the kind of muddy nation-building we used in Iraq. I would support a policy in Iran of using select air support to aid in a Iranian revolution, then having the UN carefully monitor the rise of Iranian democracy. Should the UN fail, the US will be there to provide the fist behind international words.
Without Iran the Islamists will lose credibility. It is the Iranians that inspire the rhetoric, the tactics, and even the style of dress of international Wahabbists such as Osama Bin Laden. The Iranians must be defeated and soon. They are making an army and we don't know why.
Secondly the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There must be a peaceful two state solution, plain and simple. If there is to be any credibility for the west among the greater arab populace there needs to be an independent state of Palestine. It would seem now that the Palestinians are prepared to work together for democracy more than ever before. The US should seize upon this and use international support to attempt a peaceful two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem.
