Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq
Tue May 11,10:45 AM ET
Investor'S Business Daily
Despite the Iraq (news - web sites) prison scandal that has rocked the Bush administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.
The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.
In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race.
In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to 40%.
But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their votes; Kerry gets 39%.
Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, also rose - from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a gain of 4.5%.
"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic groups we track."
Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry, the poll continues to show. While 68% of Bush's supporters say they support him strongly, only 38% of Kerry's supporters say the same for him.
Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies. Bush gets 90% of Republican votes while Kerry gets 77% of Democrats. In fact, one in eight Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush.
Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are "somewhat satisfied."
Among independents, 16% are "very satisfied" and 43% are "somewhat satisfied" with the available choice of candidates.