Now, according to the Real Clear Politics Battleground States Polling Data, here are the states that have changed hands according to the latest polls (Arkansas which was a tie, was not counted)....
Kerry Adds
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Ohio: +20
New Hampshire: +4
Bush Adds
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Michigan: +17
Oregon: +7
New Mexico: +5
Now, if the election were held today, not only would Bush win again, he'd win by a larger margin. Bush also has much more money, a later convention, the situation in Iraq has already improved significantly from last month, and polling data shows voters are dramatically underestimating how good the economy is.
It certainly wouldn't be wise for Republicans to get overconfident, but Bush, not Kerry, is in the stronger position right now...