Politics 2008:

Presidential Election

Currently;

Republican G.W. Bush

2008- Race

BetUS.com on 2008

"BetUS.com says that the Republicans are 3-to-4 favorites to keep control of the White House, with former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani the front-runner for the GOP nomination at 1-2 odds," says the Star.

Nothing wrong with that. I personally wouldn't pick Giuliani as the most likely to win the GOP nomination, but it's not a barking mad prediction. Nor is Hillary Clinton being the front-runner for the Democrats, at 3-5.

Looking further down the list and things start to get strange. OK, John McCain is a perfectly sensible second-favourite for the Republicans and John Edwards and Bill Richardson are interesting, but not implausible, joint-second favourites for the Democrats.

But Jesse Jackson Jr and Barack Obama coming next, at 8-1? At least people are talking about Obama in 2008, albeit not seriously. But this is the first time I've seen Jackson's name as a possible presidential contender, so this fourth place from the bookies is distinctly odd.

http://www.ovaloffice2008.com/2006/01/bett...edict-rudy.html

6:00p

Odds On: Who will be chosen as the Democratic candidate for the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Hillary Clinton 4/13


Barack Obama 12/5

Al Gore 5/1
John Edwards 8/1
Dennis Kucinich 20/1
Joseph Biden 30/1
Chris Dodd 40/1
Mike Gravel 40/1
Bill Richardson 40/1

All wagers will be settled once the party makes its official announcement. Max. $50.
6:00p

Odds On: Which party will win the 2008 US Presidential election?

Democratic Party 1/3


Republican Party 3/2

Unity08 50/1

Reform 100/1

Libertarian 125/1

Any other Party 250/1

Party to win the Electoral College. Max. $50.
6:00p

Odds On: Which third party will receive the most votes in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Unity08 5/6

Reform 1/1
Libertarian 7/5

Bet on the party to receive the most votes excluding the Democrats and Republicans. Max. $50.
6:00p

Odds On: Who will be named as the Republican Candidate for the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Rudy Giuliani 11/10

Fred Thompson 2/1
Mitt Romney 3/1
John McCain 5/1

Newt Gingrich 7/1
Mike Huckabee 15/1
Ron Paul 18/1
Tommy Thompson 20/1
Sam Brownback 20/1
Chuck Hagel 25/1
Duncan Hunter 35/1
Tom Tancredo 50/1
Jim Gilmore 60/1


All wagers will be settled once the party makes its official announcement. Max. $50.
6:00p

Odds On: Who will win the 2008 Presidential Election?

Hillary Clinton 2/1
Barack Obama 3/1
Rudy Giuliani 4/1

Fred Thompson 6/1
Mitt Romney 9/1
Al Gore 10/1
Mike Bloomberg 15/1
John Edwards 14/1
John McCain 16/1
Bill Richardson 40/1
Mike Huckabee 55/1
Chris Dodd 60/1
Ron Paul 50/1
Chuck Hagel 90/1
Dennis Kucinich 90/1

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/bet-on-pre...etting-odds.htm



McCain vs Clinton, Clinton by 4.5%
McCain vs Obama, Obama by 3.7%

Giuliani vs Clinton, Clinton by 5.5%
Giuliani Vs Obama, Obama by .6%

Thompson Vs Clinton, Clinton by 10.7%
Thompson vs Obama, Obama by 11%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...t/national.html

Under current variable and changing winds I estimate the Democrats will go with Hillary and Obama will NOT be the VP. The VP will be either a big state westerner and or a southern.

The winds on the Republicans are cross winds with significant gust to change the equation. I think that Giuliani has enough rudder strength to slip it in on the runway,but will need a conservative VP. It would be hard for him to go with Romney, though he would be a strong debater fund raiser and campaigner. I would think it would be a Southerner like Thompson and or Huckabee, perhaps McCain even.

Thompson so far has been a Hollow-wood tube, offering little of substance on issues but some back woods personality along the same lines of Obama's Kiddy Porn empty Rock star vestments.

Best guess for now?

Hillary by a nose.

388 days and A WAKE UP
Election day November 4, 2008!


US Senate:

Currently:

50 Democrats* – 49 Republicans and 1 Independent
· Vermont secessionist Barney Sanders the Euro-Socialist votes Democratic exclusively.

Projected from 2008 Senate Campaign;

Democratic Pick ups; -------Republican Pick up;
Colorado-----------------------
New Hampshire---------------
Virginia------------------------

Democratic Loss seat;-------Republican Loss Seat
------------------------------------Colorado
------------------------------------Virginia

Democratic at risk;----------Republican at Risk;

Louisiana----------------------Alaska
New Jersey--------------------Idaho
South Dakota-----------------Maine
-----------------------------------Minnesota
-----------------------------------Nebraska
-----------------------------------New Mexico
--------------------------------Oregon
--------------------------------Tennessee
--------------------------------Texas

Assuming a conservative 50/50 Split on at risk, my estimation is more like 60/40 for Democrats, that would have the Democrats in the Senate going from 49 currently, adding 3 pick ups predicted thus going to 52. So if they split the at risk lose 1 Democratic but gain say 4 more, that is an additional +3 giving them 55 Democratic seats, 1 reliable Independent and another partially reliable Independent, thus 57 Seats.

Right now with tail winds as they are, I estimate the Democrats will have 58 seats, with independents, in the Senate unless there is something to change the curent tail winds in the country.

Republicans could still impact and decisively affect the Democrats agenda even if they have a President as well.



http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2007/Sena...nate_races.html


Projected from 2008 House Campaign;

Currently:

233 Democrats* – 202 Republicans
* 53.56% majority


Democratic Pick ups; -------Republican Pick up;
Arizona 01---------------------


Democratic Loss seat;-------Republican Loss Seat


Democratic at risk;----------Republican at Risk;
AZ- 05------------------------CA-04
CA-11-------------------------CT –04
FL- 16--------------------------FL-13
GA-08-------------------------NV-03
GA-12-------------------------NM-01
IL-08---------------------------IL-10
IL-02--------------------------NY-25
IN-08-------------------------NC-08
KS-02-------------------------OH-02
NY-20------------------------OH-15
OH-18------------------------PA-06
PA-04-------------------------WA-08
PA-10-------------------------WY-AL
TX-22-------------------------
WI-08-------------------------


My guess is this will go 60/40 for Democrats given the current tail winds blowing in the country, which could change but would require some event to make them change direction I think.

So The Democrats at risk lose 6 but keep 9 and the Republicans lose 8 and keep 5.

That is a Democratic pick up in the House of +2 making the house Democrats 235 and republicans 200.

In my estimation with the current tail winds, the democrats will end up with 250 and th Republicans will retain but 185.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2007/House/house_races.html


That is all!!

Voters unhappy, with whom, is the question.

RCP Average

(Last Post)

Giuliani--28.0%--Thompson--14.8%--Romney--12.7%--McCain--12.2%--Huckabee--9.2%
Giuliani +13.2%

(New Post)

Giuliani--23.6%-- Huckabee--16.8%--- McCain--13.6%--Thompson--12.4%--Romney--11.8%--Paul—4.6%---

(Giuliani +6.8%)

Democratic Presidential Nomination

RCP Average

(Last Post)
Clinton--42.7%--Obama--23.0%--Edwards--12.2%

(Clinton +19.7%)

(New Post)

Clinton--42.2%--Obama--23.0%--Edwards--13%---Richardson—4%--Biden—2.8%
(Clinton +19.2%)

President Bush Job Approval

(last Post)

RCP Average—Approve--33.1%--Disapprove--62.1%
Spread -29.0%

(New Post)

RCP Average—Approve--34%--Disapprove--59.5%
Spread -25.5%


Congressional Job Approval

(Last Post)

RCP Average –Approve --22.5%--Disapprove--67.0%
Spread -44.5%

(New Post)

RCP Average –Approve --22.5%--Disapprove--67.0%
Spread -44.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/


Politics 2008:

Presidential Election

Currently;

Republican G.W. Bush

2008- Race

2008 US Presidential Odds

Hillary Clinton 1-3
Rudy Giuliani 3-1
Barack Obama 5-1 Al Gore 5-1
Mitt Romney 8-1 Mike Huckabee 8-1
John Edwards 18-1 Ron Paul 18-1
Michael Bloomberg 20-1
Fred Thompson 25-1 JohnMcCain 25-1


http://linesmaker.com/live_odds/us_preside...ection_odds.htm

(Old Post) Giuliani vs Clinton, Clinton by 5.5%

(New Post) Rudy Giuliani ® vs. Hillary Clinton (D) by 3.7%

(Old Post) McCain vs Clinton, Clinton by 4.5%

(New Post) McCain vs Clinton, Clinton by 2.8%

(Old Post) Giuliani Vs Obama, Obama by .6%

(New Posts) Giuliani Vs Obama, Obama by 2.2%

(Old Post) McCain vs Obama, Obama by 3.7%

( New Posts) McCain vs Obama, Obama by 1.0%


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...t/national.html

Under current variable and changing winds I estimate the Democrats will go with Hillary and Obama will NOT be the VP. The VP will be either a big state westerner and or a southern.

Best guess is Richardson, because he is Hispanic and from the west.

The winds for the Republicans are still cross winds, with significant gusts needed to change the equation. I think that Giuliani has enough rudder strength to slip it in on the runway, but will need a conservative VP. It would be hard for him to go with Romney, though he would be a strong debater, fund raiser, and campaigner. I would think it would be a Southerner like Thompson and or Huckabee, perhaps McCain even.

Bet isgues is it will be Huckabee, given his gains recently. I doubt McCain would take the VO spot even if asked.


Best guess General Election for now?

Hillary still, by a nose. Less than 2%.

Odd ball least likely guess, Huchabee vs Obama, Huckabee by less than a nose.

330 days and A WAKE UP
Election day November 4, 2008!


US Senate:

Currently:

49 Democrats 49 Republicans and 2 Independent

* Vermont secessionist Barney Sanders the Euro-Socialist votes Democratic exclusively.
* Liberman, an old school Liberal Moderate, mostly votes Democratic, but not when it comes to National Defense.

Projected from 2008 Senate Campaign;

Democratic Pick ups; -------Republican Pick up;
Colorado
New Hampshire
Virginia
Maine

Democrats 49+4=53 + 2 independent (55) Republican 49-4 (45)

Democratic at risk;----------Republican at Risk;

New Jersey----------------------Alaska
South Dakota------------------ Minnesota
Louisiana ---------------------- Nebraska
-----------------------------------New Mexico
-----------------------------------Oregon
-----------------------------------Oklahoma
-----------------------------------Idaho

Assuming, Democrats retain all at Risk and Republican at Risk loss 4 of 8 at risk Senate seats, that would have the Democrats in the Senate;

Democrats 53 + 2 independent (55)+4 (59) Republican (45)-4 (41)


Right now with tail winds as they are, I estimate the Democrats will have 59 seats, with independents, in the Senate unless there is something to change to the current tail winds in the country.

Republicans could still impact and decisively affect the Democrats agenda even if they have a Democratic President as well Though such am outcome would give the Doom-ocrats no one to blame but themselves as to any adverse events and circumstances.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2007/Sena...nate_races.html

Projected from 2008 House Campaign;

Currently:

233 Democrats* – 199 Republicans ---3 vacancies
* 53.94% majority

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/cong.html

Democratic Pick ups; -------Republican Pick up;
Arizona 01---------------------

Democratic at risk;----------Republican at Risk;

AZ-01-------------------------
AZ- 05------------------------CA-04
CA-11-------------------------CT –04 (Dem Pick up)
FL- 16--------------------------FL-13
GA-08(Rep Pick up)---------NV-03(Dem Pick up)
GA-12-------------------------NM-01
IL-08(Rep Pick up)----------IL-10( Dem Pick up)
IL-02--------------------------NY-25(Dem Pick up)
IN-08(Rep pick up)---------NC-08
KS-02-------------------------OH-02
NY-20------------------------OH-15
OH-18(Rep Pick up)--------PA-06(Dem Pick up)
PA-04(Rep Pick up)--------WA-08
PA-10(Rep Pick up)--------WY-AL
TX-22 ( Rep Pick up)-------NJ-03 (Dem Pick up)
WI-08-------------------------
NY-20-------------------------
TX-23-------------------------

Estimates are Democrats pickup 6 seats and Republicans pickup 7 seats

233 Democrats* (232) 199 Republicans –(200) ---3 vacancies
* 53.7% majority

Democrat’s seats at Risk – 11 Republican seats at Risk - 8

Assuming Democrat’s retain 9 of 11 and get 2 of 3 vacancies and Republicans retain only 2 of 8 with 1 of 3 vacancies.

234 Democrats* ------- 201 Republicans
* 53.79% majority

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2007/House/house_races.html

That is all!!